In the jungle world with frequent wars and dangers, the vast majority of people do not have the capital to live and die.
But technology makes fun of people. We work hard. We work overtime day and night, and the whole people devote their efforts to attract capital from all over the world with the best technical talents. It is also possible to create a metaverse in which we are in.
A Xing has always said that in fact, the so-called metaverse is not so complex. The mobile Internet is metaverse 1 0. All tragedies or gossip can be viewed as visitors, all positive or negative emotions have been streamed, and all commodity exchange or consumption formats can be electronic. In the short term, there is no media product more suitable for “metaverse” than mobile phones.
We should understand “metaverse” from the perspective of intelligent media and open our imagination to see how people, things, things, behaviors, relationships, models and enterprises change in the new digital media form. From this perspective, metaverse also has its existence value. For example, some things that are difficult to deal with in the real world can be carried out in the digital mimicry world, such as digital twins, such as making comic films, such as restoring modern people’s traversal of ancient mythology and ancient life scenes. These will be very interesting inventions.
Therefore, metaverse’s entrepreneurial intention and initial intention are very important. If the mind skill is crooked at the beginning, how to make people indulge in thinking, how to circle money, how to let young people rot and waste time in it, and finally there is no other function except to make learning slag, waste materials and lie flat, then find ways to maintain such a concept or promote such an industry, It is tantamount to aiding tyranny. Especially now, when many local governments are still trying to build metaverse Industrial Park and industrial chain in order to boost GDP, they need to be cautious in attracting investment.
In fact, this topic has been planned for two months. Writing before the Chinese New Year is not very pleasant, and I think it is still in the Chinese new year before the 15th day of the first month. I won’t send it after writing, so I’ve been delayed until now.
It’s time to talk about metaverse’s death. First, there are no new things in the sun. History is often surprisingly similar, which is no different from the development track of the Internet; Second, even if metaverse gets up, less than 10% will die and 90% will die. This is the objective law of market economy.
01. Financing shortage
When someone mentions the word “metaverse” to you, it’s hard to remember the name of a new startup in three seconds. Some people may say rolbox, but this company can’t enter the Chinese market. The scope of our discussion is limited to the domestic market.
Many big companies, especially those with strong advantages in the content industry, have announced to enter “metaverse”, and there are also many excellent entrepreneurial teams to obtain giant financing, which means that the giant decides to do it by itself instead of supporting the younger brother in a decent way as before; It is rarely heard that star VC is willing to enter this emerging field on a large scale (which is not as good as blockchain), which may be related to their feeling that since large factories have focused on this area, the imagination space for entrepreneurial projects to enter this area is really limited.
There are also some projects that have a good foundation and just need a concept package. Those who need long-term investment and short-term operation are more difficult, especially need money, and generally need capital.
Many people see that the help of capital to the development of enterprises is actually a “survivor deviation”. Any kind of capital entering the enterprise must have a price. For example, it is necessary to conduct detailed interrogation and understand the entrepreneurial projects. Finally, it did not invest, but also invested in competitors; For example, the valuation of projects invested by some investment institutions is often less than half of their external publicity, which makes it difficult for enterprises to ride the tiger and subsequently introduce other investment institutions. For example, some capital fattens enterprises, disrupting the rhythm of enterprise development, and many enterprises gradually lose control of operation due to dilution of equity or gambling failure in financing. This also makes it difficult for the market to get up quickly with less financing, and there are many dead start-ups with more financing.
At present, the most realistic thing about metaverse is that there is no atmosphere of throwing money for projects in the primary market, which can be seen from the corresponding soft broadcasting investment; In the past, the phenomenon that enterprises can’t stop because of taking financing like taking stimulants, and enterprises can’t find a successor in the process of capital withdrawal has not yet appeared. At that time, with the rise of the market, such failure cases will also appear in large numbers.
02. Chicken ribs
The reason why the mobile Internet can rise is due to two foundations: first, the mobile phone hardware is simple, convenient, cheap and powerful, and the price is not expensive; Second, the unified operating system standards and the huge Android and IOS developers can express many scenes in code and product language.
At present, metaverse has neither a relatively unified hardware product nor a programming standard, which leads to the fact that the competitiveness of metaverse products is still much lower than that of mobile phones, and the number of users is still relatively small.
In fact, most of the apps on many metaverse mobile phones are previous blockchain air coin projects and communities, and the hardware products are mainly VR products.
There are also some apps with the name “metaverse”. They have changed a new vest for the previous capital disk project. They use metaverse to activate the atmosphere. There is no metaverse technology.
Mobile phone mobile phone has been limited to a relatively small minority, the main reason is that the content itself is quite mature because of the mobile phone itself, and the price of tiktok has been configured well. The experience of wearing VR helmet is obviously not brushing Metaverse Kill, which is simple and direct. Of course, other VR game products are similar. In fact, they still do not establish the essential difference between playing mobile phones and playing mobile phones. It is a pity to give up.
The core reason for the failure of metaverse products in the consumer market is still that the products are not just needed. They do not have strong demand like new energy vehicles, and do not provide a more extreme experience than traditional products. In other words, if metaverse products want to be popular, they must bring additional surprises to consumers after meeting the needs of users, But metaverse is obviously not as lucky as electric cars. After all, mobile phones have no carbon emissions or purchase restrictions.
03. Vicious competition
Any new field has unlimited vitality, but the whole market is in a savage growth period, and there are no corresponding norms or industry constraints.
In fact, this is the root cause of the failure of start-ups in many industries. There are many specific types. Some prices are lower than each other, so there is no profit space, and they earn money; Some malicious plagiarism, you do what I do, although metaverse is a basket, everything is loaded into it, when you do what, competitors copy, this situation also exists, this is a typical bad money expels good money, and when the bottom line is how low, many potential projects have become victims.
04. Greedy for perfection
When the mobile Internet comes up, many enterprises think about whether they can make an application that can chat, provide online shopping for consumers, attract advertising and play games, in order to attract more users.
It’s beautiful to think of, but there’s no reason why users have to use it. The survival of any product in the market must rely on its own killer business, and then extend other businesses from the perspective of retaining users. For example, meituan also has chat and advertising, but there is no catering takeout line, and everything else is useless; For example, there are various sectors of the industry, but tiktok is not done.
The key is that many entrepreneurs always want to do it all at once, but they don’t set a clear position according to their own strength. In the final analysis, it is a lack of creativity, because everyone wants to do it all at the beginning. Of course, some also prove that the super applications or monopoly applications that later dominated the world did so to prove how successful they were in starting a business. This is that they neither clearly distinguish what they should do at different stages nor see how many resources can match. For entrepreneurs in any field, a needle piercing the sky is still the standard to judge whether the product has a market and prospects.
So, whether the giants entering metaverse have the strength to make whole category products, the answer is still No. A so-called metaverse product that can do anything appears in the period of information explosion and application explosion. In fact, it is useless. This means that it has not found a special scene that is different from mobile phones. Imagine that it has not achieved such a strong penetration rate of smart TV, so why can VR / AR devices win mobile phones?! For giants, what’s the point of winning?
05. False demand of products
No matter how powerful metaverse is, it has to be tested by the market. The product itself is something that meets the needs of users, but there are many products to meet any demand. Therefore, it is not easy to meet the original needs of users with new products. In fact, many products with the name of “new” are not painful enough for users. In fact, they are fake demand products that users have no sense of, It is inevitable to be eliminated.
At present, the demand in metaverse mainly focuses on big entertainment, such as online games, film and television, secondary element, making friends and so on.
However, metaverse game theory is not as professional as Internet cafes, social experience is not as script killing or secret room escape, and operation is not as convenient as mobile phones; As well as those who expect metaverse to keep pets, it’s better to do it with a blind box and a two-dimensional doll.
Metaverse can always watch movies. In fact, it depends on whether the channel has enough money to buy IP content. In fact, it has little to do with watching in the cinema, on TV or on short videos.
There are also Kwai GI’s entrepreneurial scenes like digital girlfriends. They can’t see what competitiveness they have between YY and tiktok, which is not conducive to the commercialization of the spring water hall, their interest and other interesting products. Or before it can’t provide users with a huge sense of surprise, most of the startups like metaverse are pseudo needs for metaverse.
06. No breakthrough in underlying technology
In fact, before the metaverse fire, the BCI was on fire, but it seems that Musk’s BCI monkey was infected and depressed, and was sprayed by animal protection organizations! In fact, I’m not worried that there will be a breakthrough in brain computer interface technology. I think if normal people plug in that problem, it will be called “brain disability”.
Metaverse needs strong artificial intelligence at the anthropomorphic level. Similar to the digital Guardian shown in matrix 4, it actually needs to fully collect and analyze a person’s data. In fact, at present, brain science has not made much achievements in the research of human brain potential, so it may not be easy to develop on the digital brain.
Moreover, the data volume and computing load brought by metaverse are quite large. For example, a photo may need 2MB of data, while a realistic digital person may need 2TB of data, which is a huge consideration for the cloud server of any operation platform and is not cost-effective from a commercial point of view.
07. Grey industry is banned
The relationship between grey industry and regulation is one foot higher than the devil. The reason why it is always so high is that every time after the new technology and new air outlet come out, the most excited and fastest performing projects are often grey production projects, which have enough power to seize the window period.
The routine projects based on the concept of metaverse are mainly divided into two parts: one is to engage in money faction, the air currency project of issuing metaverse virtual currency, various fund-raising funds under the name of metaverse investment, and the mode of money laundering business with NFT; One is the pull people faction, which mainly continues to do MLM based on the concept of metaverse, forming a distribution mode of layer upon layer distribution and idling through human channels, and using metaverse account to defraud.
These models are mainly to cut a wave of leeks and withdraw Soha, and they have never thought of sustainable management.
08. Giant blocking
General giants are cautious about new businesses, and once innovative businesses emerge, they may pose a threat to their own businesses. Either the organizers will soon do the same, or they will be blocked directly at the level of traffic exposure and customer acquisition.
Some time ago, the metaverse social software “curry”, which focuses on 3D virtual image, once rushed to the top of the Appstore list, but it also attracted widespread attention because it was offline. The platform announced that it “encountered continuous and organized attacks”, including malicious rumors or bad reviews in various app stores, as well as the platform code stuck and flashed back and had to be taken off the shelf.
In addition, some metaverse products may be compatible with Internet platform products in a short time. Once they are commercialized, such as playing advertisements or inserting links, they will be subject to technical counteraction or even legal proceedings by the platform. In fact, they are also realized and blocked.
09. Large market investment without return
Although the biggest expenditure of a company is often the staff salary, the market investment is also a major expenditure item. The market investment mainly includes the investment cost of product launch, the promotion cost of finding KOL evaluation, the advertising cost to the Internet platform, as well as the subsidy or trial cost to users.
Predictably, metaverse still needs to rely on Internet users to cultivate traffic during the startup period; Today, with the high cost of getting customers in the Internet industry, this is why the giants who master the traffic entrance can always easily catch up with and constantly develop new business lines.
Of course, many times, when the market is not in force, the product will not produce effective output. If we hit more or less, we will be able to suck up more.
10. Strong supervision
This will come sooner or later, and the supervision of the blockchain industry will be faster and more thorough. In fact, the crackdown on ash production is almost possible at the policy level. With the follow-up of the impact, the supervision involving the whole industry will mainly include the following aspects:
For example, platform content review (involving yellow storm content and edge ball content processing), data security management and user privacy types (face recognition data and travel data leakage), user management (such as user time length, anti addiction and identity restrictions such as minors can’t use), algorithm management, etc, In fact, the mature management and investment and financing restrictions of many Internet industries will be gradually applied to the field of metaverse. At that time, it will gradually guide metaverse to the practical industry rather than the pure entertainment field, which is also the general trend.
A Xing finally wants to state that the author’s statement is only the reason for the elimination in the general tuyere, which does not mean that the author holds a negative attitude towards metaverse, nor does it refer to any company. It is not easy to start a business in any field. It is not a bad thing to point out these pits in advance. Please do not enter the seat with the right number. If there are similarities, it is a pure coincidence.
Introduction to the author
Reliable star Li Xing official account: reliable star, the best seller of media strategy. Reliable founder.