Original title: metaverse hype map: hot money staged a “minimum resistance” game & nbsp;
Securities Times reporter Wang Xiaowei
Recently, the hype of metaverse concept has surged, some listed companies have accelerated their attachment, and the exchange has issued more and more attention letters.
Dismantling the capital map behind metaverse’s continuous hype, some new features different from competing for other concepts are also emerging. On the one hand, many overlapping seats have been switched between metaverse concept companies, becoming the main force of this round of concept speculation; On the other hand, the “minimum resistance” game also caused the dislocation between the operation logic of secondary funds and the industrial logic, making the speculation of metaverse concept continue to be active.
Collective Carnival of overlapping seats
The current round of metaverse concept speculation of a shares is not the solo dance of single path funds in a single stock, but the joint force of multiple forces under the turn switching between multiple stocks.
Taking Jiachuang video as an example, due to the public statement that “the VR business carried out by the company is one of the core technical bases involving the metaverse concept”, the company’s share price rose continuously from November 3 to 5. CAITONG securities Hangzhou Shangtang Road business department, the capital of hot money, and Huaxin securities Huzhou labor Road Securities Business Department of North Zhejiang Financial Center joined hands to act as the main force of long growth, and institutional seats were also listed on the list for many times. Institutions and hot money danced together on the “metaverse dance floor”.
For the alliance between institutions and hot money, Wang can (a pseudonym), a private placement person in South China, told reporters that it is difficult to judge the specific reasons at present. “Perhaps both sides are optimistic about the metaverse layout and future growth space of relevant companies, and do not rule out the possibility of exchanging information between some institutions and hot money.”
While the multi-channel capital collective carnival, some funds are constantly converted in concept stocks. This makes almost all stocks involving the metaverse concept overlap with the same seats.
If zhongqingbao is the number one player of the A-share metaverse concept, CAITONG securities Hangzhou Shangtang Road business department (hereinafter referred to as “Shangtang road”) can be regarded as the “number one fan” of zhongqingbao. However, in addition to appearing in the zhongqingbao dragon and tiger list, Shangtang road has also appeared in Shengtian network, visual China, Tom cat and other stocks.
The same situation also appeared in the business department of North Zhejiang Financial Center, Huzhou labor Road, Huaxin securities. As the most active force in the hype of metaverse concept, since November, this business department has successively appeared in the dragon and tiger list of metaverse concept companies such as Jiachuang video, Chinese online, tianxiaxiu, Hengxin Oriental and zhongqingbao, with the purchase amount of tens of millions of yuan.
A noteworthy phenomenon is that some funds may be ambushed in advance. From the operation signs, Shangtang Road, as the representative fund of ultra short technique, usually adopts the mode of one-day tour in this round of metaverse hype.
On September 9 this year, Shangtang road sold zhongqingbao, with a net sales volume of 71.1451 million yuan. However, another well-known hot money CITIC Securities Shanghai Liyang Road business department took over the chip, and zhongqingbao finally closed in red. However, Shangtang road resumed its operation on zhongqingbao for two consecutive days. On the first day, it bought 62.583 million yuan and did not sell it; The next day, another 4.7543 million yuan was bought and 75.8993 million yuan was sold. The total sales was greater than the total purchase, revealing the characteristics of early latency. However, the Facebook renaming incident, which ignited the enthusiasm of zhongqingbao hype, suddenly occurred, and the total amount of funds ambushed in advance was not high.
Rare “one big family”
The intertwined game of multiple forces makes the Dragon Tiger list of most metaverse concept stocks show the characteristics of relatively balanced buying.
Taking Dafu technology as an example, because it claimed to be the perfect founder of metaverse in its exchanges with institutions, the company’s share price rose by the limit on November 16. The purchase amount of Guojin Securities Shanghai Pudong New Area Meihua Road business department and Dongguan securities Sichuan branch is between 11 million yuan and 32 million yuan.
However, this is not true in all cases. In the speculation of some stocks, the phenomenon of “one dominant company” appears from time to time. On November 9, Huaxin securities purchased zhongqingbao from the business department of North Zhejiang Financial Center, Laodong Road, Huzhou, with an amount of 140 million yuan. As the overall turnover of zhongqingbao on that day was 3.63 billion yuan, this means that the turnover of a single business department has reached 4%. In addition, shares such as Hengxin Oriental also have similar characteristics.
Wang can told reporters that the definition of “one dominant company” in the secondary market is relatively simple, that is, the purchase volume of list 1 exceeds the total purchase volume of list 2 to list 5. “This situation sometimes means the admission of the ‘Tibetan mastiff’ (people in the secondary market call retail concentration camps), so the main force is often taboo to rise again in the later stage.”
Logically, the buying capital of “one dominant” means that the number of chips held by the seat is too heavy, which often puts pressure on other funds. In terms of follow-up funds on the floor, the fear of escape similar to the prisoner’s dilemma will aggravate the follow-up panic; For off-site funds, they will not only worry about the single largest shipment, but also consider the panic run of other funds and follow the trend, so they are unwilling to relay. Based on this, from the past law, it is rare for one company to dominate the A-share list.
“Many people understand this truth. After all, the speculation of popular stocks is a joint capital market. If you eat alone, no one is willing to play with you. In the end, whoever is dominant will easily suffer losses,” Wang can told reporters, “A lot of hot money is multi account and multi seat. Even if you want to buy a lot of chips, you will buy them by sub account to form seat linkage, which makes the dragon and tiger list look like the buying volume is very uniform and reduces the panic caused by the dominance of one company. Moreover, many funds will clearly tell other players that they do not have the meaning of dominance of one company and do not have much stupid money To the point of. “
Why does a dominant company often appear in the speculation of metaverse concept stocks?
Wang can believes that this is related to the expectation of the attractiveness of funds to the subject matter. “The turnover rate of some stocks has exceeded 40%, and more funds are needed to drive the stock price; behind it, it reflects the optimistic judgment of a dominant fund side for follow-up, and believes that the market’s speculation on metaverse is far from extinguished.”
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher in the financial market department of Everbright Bank, believes that the emergence of a dominant fund also reflects the characteristics of conceptual speculation in this round of metaverse speculation. One of the reasons supporting this judgment is that there is a mismatch between the operation logic of secondary funds and the industrial logic.
According to the industrial development logic, metaverse, as the ultimate form of the next generation Internet, will deduce according to the industrial development logic of the Internet: first, the equipment companies that develop the core hardware and infrastructure, second, the application scenarios, and finally the explosive growth of software service companies. However, from the speculation of the secondary market, the application scenarios are the focus of funds The target of hunting. Whether zhongqingbao or tianxiaxiu, even if it really touches metaverse, it mostly belongs to the downstream application category.
Why do funds find a breakthrough in speculation in downstream applications? Zhou Maohua believes that it is related to the capital structure of the company. “Whether it is chip stocks represented by northern Huachuang and goer shares or virtual reality stocks represented by Wentai technology, there are large positions of funds in circulation, which will increase the difficulty of raising funds.”
Take northern Huachuang as an example. As of November this year, the top ten shareholders of the company include not only noan growth hybrid securities investment fund and Galaxy innovation growth hybrid securities investment fund, but also national integrated circuit industry investment fund and northbound capital, and the shareholding ratio of the latter two exceeds 5%. However, in the list of top ten shareholders represented by zhongqingbao, there are almost no active shareholders The presence of public funds can undoubtedly make the hyped funds get rid of the concern of raising sedan chairs for public funds, and reduce the resistance of absorbing, pulling, sending and falling in the process of operation.
From this point of view, the recent metaverse hype funds are playing in the secondary market according to the “minimum resistance path”, which also brings the continuous and active characteristics of metaverse concept hype to a certain extent.
Hot pending cases of listed companies
The hype of metaverse concept is surging, and many companies have accelerated their reliance. At the same time, the supervision represented by the letter of concern of the exchange is becoming stronger and stronger.
According to the reporter’s preliminary statistics, in November, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued more than 10 regulatory decisions or relevant working letters to companies involved in metaverse concept, pointing directly at the relationship between the main business of listed companies and metaverse, and asking to explain whether a stable business model can be formed and whether there is “hot spot” behavior.
Judging from the replies of listed companies, all companies have denied whether to take the opportunity to hype. However, in Wang can’s view, many companies have no relevant motivation or share price appeal for the relevant subject matter.
A class of companies have shown signs of hot spot operation before, and the most typical one is Dafu technology. In recent years, they have successively set foot in VR, graphene, polymer materials, OLED and other hot market concepts. Therefore, recently, the company has attracted regulatory attention after claiming to be the “perfect founder of metaverse”.
In addition, many companies are suspected of relying on the concept of metaverse or stock reduction and high-level realization. Nearly 600 million shares in the tradable shares under the sales restriction conditions of tianxiaxiu will be listed and circulated on December 31, accounting for 32.68% of the total share capital of the company. When Tom Cat responded to the company’s business layout in metaverse, VR and other fields on the interactive trading platform, it was in the reduction cycle of Jinke holdings, the controlling shareholder, so it was closed The exchange has sent a special letter asking the company to explain whether there is a situation of using interactive easy reply to rub hot spots and speculation concepts to cooperate with shareholders’ reduction.
According to Wang can’s analysis, whether listed companies have stock price motivation or not, the proportion of equity pledge of major shareholders can be regarded as an observation point. For individual stocks, including Dafu technology, the proportion of equity pledge of some important shareholders has accounted for 100% of their shares. Therefore, when it is difficult to boost the main business, if you want to boost the stock price in the secondary market, you will often be more willing to stick to the concept Strong.
In some companies, the proportion of equity pledge of major shareholders is not high, and at present, according to the logic of hyping funds, they are usually unwilling to play an unknown hero and reduce their holdings of “sedan chairs” to major shareholders. So why do the funds dare to reduce their holdings and raise the stock price when they are suspended?
Zhou Maohua believes that it is good for some important shareholders who have the right to speak in the company to resolve the pledge risk with the help of the stock price. If there is sufficient cash flow, metaverse can rise sharply. It is also a good choice to make a quick money by holding it on behalf or vest. In this mode, even if the important shareholders’ own accounts are not reduced and the related accounts or secret accounts are realized, they can benefit quickly.
Wang can said that a few years ago, regulators waved their big stick to a kind of market manipulation behavior, which is characterized by: listed companies and their controlling shareholders, actual controllers, senior executives and other stakeholders manipulated the content and rhythm of information disclosure, combined with internal and external market institutions, light and dark, virtual and real, true and false, and jointly manipulated the company’s share price, Intent to make illegal profits through high-level cash out. “Although it was aimed at the speculation of new shares at that time, it can not be said that this phenomenon has completely disappeared. When some listed companies keen on capital operation are combined with hot money in the market, it is easy to have similar manipulation.”
Zhou Maohua pointed out that in the science and technology circle and the capital market, some new concepts will appear every other cycle. In 2018, blockchain has become an absolutely hot topic, with its popularity catching up with artificial intelligence. But now looking back, some companies have exploded, and the blockchain layout and concept speculation of some companies are finally a chicken feather.
Recently, Wang can has contacted many listed companies due to work reasons. He told the reporter that the actual controller of a company has been in the VR field for many years and has always wanted to inject relevant businesses into listed companies. However, after VR has been popular for a period of time, he has been hiding in the corner and eating ash in recent years because he is not popular with capital; There is also a listed company whose participating companies have also built ecological synergy with many metaverse related service providers, but the company did not make a statement. Under the constant questioning of investors, the company finally responded on the interactive platform that “the main body of the listed company itself has no metaverse related business”. “In contrast, we are more willing to track and invest in targets that ignore the tuyere even when standing at the tuyere, but choose to be rational and pragmatic and move forward along the previously established strategy.”
According to the reporter’s interview, after the continuous rise of valuation, investors’ attitude towards metaverse is becoming more and more enthusiastic. Some investors still believe that metaverse is just the beginning and there is unlimited imagination space in the future; Some investors believe that once the previous low-level stocks soar with the help of the metaverse concept, it is not ruled out that new and old metaverse stocks will usher in a collective “graduation photo”.
Xu Qiongna, head of a fund with a management scale of more than 100 million yuan, clearly pointed out in her short video account that with the progress of technology, metaverse has the possibility of realization, which is the basis of capital speculation. However, from the perspective of VR and AR penetration, it is still a long time before we can really see the results. “Metaverse is a relatively certain industry in the future, but most technology giants are in the process of exploration, or they have just arranged relevant companies in the primary market. No so-called metaverse enterprises in the secondary market rely on metaverse.”
Editor in charge: Li Tong