Our reporter Wang Siwen
Trainee reporter Zhang Bo
Metaverse, a hypothesis put forward by American writer Neal Stephenson in the book avalanche in the 1990s, has become a global hot word this year. In recent months, Facebook (renamed meta), Microsoft, NVIDIA and other giants have entered Metaverse; Tencent and other companies in China are actively competing for admission tickets. At the same time, the A-share Metaverse concept plate also ushered in a sharp rise.
So, what is Metaverse? What are the investment opportunities for Metaverse? On November 28, the eight major financial institutions were interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily and talked about Metaverse from different dimensions.
Metaverse is in the early stage of development
The supporting technology is not mature yet
Although the concept of Metaverse is hot, there is no final conclusion on “what is the definition of Metaverse”.
“At present, the mainstream definition of Metaverse is networked virtual reality.” Fang Guangzhao, an analyst at open source securities, said that users can design “avatars” for themselves and control the movement of “avatars” in space like a game; At the same time, in the virtual world with perfect infrastructure, users can realize their personal and social needs such as identity, currency transaction, community belonging and career development in an all-round way as in the real physical world.
Ding Yujie, a researcher of Wanjia fund, also said that at present, Metaverse is in the embryonic stage. No one can say clearly what it will develop in the future. Speculation is the main thing in the short term, but some investment opportunities will continue to appear in the long term.
“Recently, the Metaverse sector has made an eye-catching performance in a shares, mainly due to the continuous catalysis on the event side. NVIDIA announced the launch of the world’s first basic simulation platform for Metaverse, Omniverse, byte beat announced the acquisition of VR company Pico, Facebook directly renamed meta and other events continued to heat up the board,” said Ding Yujie.
Metaverse concept stocks have risen surprisingly in the past two months. According to the data of Dongfang fortune choice, as of November 28, there were 76 A-share Metaverse concept stocks. The Metaverse concept sector increased by an average of 22.65% in recent one month and 22.23% in recent two months. Among them, the rise of zhongqingbao is amazing, with an increase of 305% in the past two months, ranking first in the increase list.
In the view of Li yaozhu, fund manager of GF global selected stocks (QDII), Metaverse, like automatic driving, is in line with future technological progress. “The long-term vision of Metaverse is the interconnection of all things and the combination of virtual and real. It is necessary to gather all the current scientific and technological forces to create a second world no less than the real world or a new world integrated with the real world in the future. In essence, it is to improve work efficiency and stimulate human innovation potential. It is the combination of science and technology to change life and science and technology to the good It’s not a game that makes people immerse or ‘sink’. From this point of view, Metaverse may be an important industrial opportunity. “
“Looking up at the starry sky is expected to ignite a new industrial revolution, but we need to be down-to-earth and seek long-term development.” Chen Mengjie, chief strategic analyst of YueKai Securities Research Institute, believes that there is a long way to go from the real realization of Metaverse, and the technologies supporting Metaverse are still in the early stage of development. For enterprises, R & D of new technologies, such as VR / AR, AI, cloud computing, etc., has a long investment cycle. Taking into account production and research, they need sufficient cash flow and technical team support.
Xu Chengcheng, fund manager of Cathay Pacific China Securities animation game ETF, also believes that many technologies supporting Metaverse are still immature. If there are some breakthroughs in some technical fields and have strong commercial value, the market will pay more attention to the Metaverse concept. With the continuous improvement of completion, its commercial value will be fully reflected in a long time in the future.
Metaverse market hot spots
Focus on VR and games
According to Kaiyuan Securities Research Institute, at present, the Metaverse industrial chain is mainly divided into four parts. One is the hardware plate, which provides physical technologies and facilities for developing, interacting or using Metaverse products, such as VR glasses; The second is the software section, which provides support and enabling for hardware and realizes physical computing, artificial intelligence and other functions; The third is the service section, which is used to provide a platform for carrying users’ online identity; Fourth, the application and content section provides products under terminal application scenarios such as games.
“There are many investment opportunities for Metaverse. Different industrial chains will derive their own investment opportunities with the continuous progress of technology.” Ding Yujie told reporters that at present, the hot spots in the market are mainly focused on equipment and content. From the perspective of hardware equipment, the domestic industrial chain is gradually maturing, such as VR OEM, some VR optical parts Structural parts and other companies gradually have orders. From the perspective of content product form, the game is the prototype of Metaverse. However, there is a big gap between the current game and the mature form of Metaverse, and the corresponding underlying technology still needs to be improved.
Wang Xinchen, the core asset fund manager of harvest Hong Kong stock Internet industry, believes that the comprehensive concept of Metaverse and the complexity and diversity of the system determine that it can accommodate many industries and will stimulate new potential. For some time to come, the game industry will be a track worthy of attention. First, the approval of version numbers will be relaxed, and each company will launch new games; Second, overseas development. At present, Chinese mobile game companies are in a leading position in the world.
“In addition, VR / AR and other hardware devices have better development space in the future. VR devices are replacing the host as the best choice for games,” Wang Xinchen said.
Xu Chengcheng also believes that the game sector deserves attention. He said that from the perspective of the feasibility of the implementation of Metaverse, open world games may become the earliest commercialized field. Recently, the valuation of A-share game sector has rebounded significantly under the catalysis of Metaverse. It is judged that the investment opportunities in the next stage of Metaverse may be more concentrated in head game companies with open world game R & D and operation ability, continuous recovery of quarterly performance and still low valuation, In the long run, the Internet platform has a greater chance to win. With the development of Metaverse, the game sector is expected to usher in the improvement of the overall prosperity.
Li yaozhu paid more attention to the chip industry chain. “The essence of Metaverse is a high degree of digitization similar to real life, which has an exponential growth in the demand for algorithm computing power. According to Moore’s law, the performance of the chip is gradually improving. At present, the chip process is reduced to less than 10nm, and it becomes more and more difficult to improve the process. Our chip architecture is still based on von Neumann architecture. Storage and computing are separated, and each unit is different There are communication delays and storage bandwidth constraints. We need to break through the traditional framework from the underlying architecture in order to fundamentally improve the computing power and better meet the needs of Metaverse for digital computing. “
“I don’t think there are too many investment directions for ‘Metaverse’ in a shares at present, and there are relatively few subdivided tracks that can be cashed in on performance in the future.” Yang Ningjia, stock fund manager of Haifutong electronic information media industry, believes that at present, the equipment side is a relatively definite direction. As an important link, VR / AR helmets can continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains. In addition to the device side, the content also covers everything, including games, pictures, videos, virtual objects, etc. Generally speaking, Metaverse is still in the early stage of development, and its development trend can be paid attention to for a long time.
“Whether it is the primary market or the secondary market, the current investment in the theme of Metaverse is still in the stage of emerging concept, and there is still a long process from reaching a mature and successful commercial product.” Zhou Zhiyi, researcher of Boshi fund industry research department, frankly said.
Behind the Metaverse boom
Be alert to relevant risks
Behind the “boom” of Metaverse, the market should pay more attention to and be vigilant against the risks existing in the early stage of industry growth. Wang Xinchen told reporters, “behind the Metaverse boom, more is people’s common desire to break through physical restrictions and expand life experience. However, don’t imagine the scene in the ultimate” number one player “step by step, which is very far away from us. The investment in Metaverse should follow the law of industrial development, especially the bottom law of science and technology investment itself.”
Fang Guangzhao also stressed that Metaverse is still in the embryonic exploration stage, and there are no targeted laws, regulations and industry policies to regulate its development, and the impact of changes in regulatory policies on industry development is uncertain; In addition, there is no definite commercial product of Metaverse at present, and its commercial realization mode is uncertain in the future.
“There are some risks in participating in ‘Metaverse’ investment, and these risks are essentially some misunderstandings in our understanding of Metaverse.” Li yaozhu said that there are three categories: the first category of misunderstandings is that Metaverse is a pure concept. At present, there is a concept of company speculation, but some companies are really doing things, which can not be generalized; The second kind of misunderstanding is that Metaverse is VR. In fact, VR is only a possible carrier, an element or tool to realize Metaverse, and cannot be simply equivalent to Metaverse itself; The third kind of misunderstanding is that Metaverse is a game, and the game is only a relatively rich content form. Similar to VR devices, this understanding is too simplified.
From the perspective of fund allocation, Li yaozhu believes that considering that there are many technical fields and segmentation directions behind Metaverse, and the most representative companies are scattered in various countries around the world, the investment scope of the fund investing in Metaverse should preferably cover the global mainstream stock market, and the industry distribution can be scattered in 5g, VR / AR, computing power / chip, blockchain, cloud computing In AI, game / art scene, work / life scene and other fields, we should focus on companies with real products and services in the selection of investment targets.
“For investment, we should do long-term valuable things.” Zhou Zhiyi also said that the market will change a lot every day. For example, the rise and fall of the “Metaverse” plate are common, so we need to maintain a good and stable state of mind. At the same time, we should do serious and careful research and invest cautiously, rather than rush in in in a swarm.